Market Commentary
For the week of January 31, 2011
The Market
The Dow moved above 12,000 shortly after the start of trading Wednesday for the first time in almost three years but was unable to maintain that height at close. Stocks suffered their biggest one-day loss in nearly six months on Friday following anti-government rioting in Egypt. This drop ended the Dow’s eight-week winning streak. For the week, the Dow fell 0.41 percent to close at 11,823.70. The S&P lost 0.53 percent to finish at 1,276.34 and the NASDAQ dropped 0.10 percent, ending the week at 2,686.89.
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Returns Through 1/28/11
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1 Week
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YTD
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1 Year
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3 Year
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5 Year
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Dow Jones Industrials (TR)
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-0.41
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2.26
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20.02
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1.38
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4.38
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NASDAQ Composite (PR)
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-0.10
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1.28
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23.31
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4.57
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3.12
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S&P 500 (TR)
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-0.53
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1.59
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20.07
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0.30
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2.02
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BarCap US Agg Bond (TR)
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0.39
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0.27
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5.48
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5.32
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5.85
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MSCI EAFE (TR)
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0.40
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2.27
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14.77
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-2.76
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1.78
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Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, BarCap US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.
Stocks By Quarter – The S&P 500 has produced an average total return gain of 0.9 percent during the first quarter (i.e., January-February-March) since 1990, only the third best performing quarter behind the fourth quarter (up 4.9 percent on average) and the second quarter (up 2.8 percent on average). With just one trading day remaining in January 2011, the S&P 500 was up 1.6 percent YTD through the close of trading last Friday, Jan. 28, 2011 (source: BTN Research).
Debt – Fifty percent of the 75 million homeowners in the U.S. either have an outstanding mortgage balance on their primary residence that is less than 50 percent of their home’s current fair market value (e.g., mortgage debt of less than $100,000 on a $200,000 home) or they have no outstanding mortgage debt at all (source: Census Bureau, BTN Research).
More And More – Forty-seven million Americans out of our population of 312 million (15 percent) are on Medicare today. An estimated 2.8 million additional Americans will turn age 65 during the 2011 calendar year and qualify for Medicare enrollment (source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, BTN Research).
WEEKLY FOCUS – Take Half-Time To Check With Your Financial Coach
The National Football League’s Super Bowl championship isn’t always just for sports fans. When the Green Bay Packers face the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend, there is potential for wins on Wall Street as well as on the field. According to an analysis by Capital IQ – a unit of Standard and Poor’s – U.S. market returns top 20 percent annually when either of these teams plays on Super Bowl Sunday.
With the big game coming up, it’s a good time to think about your own financial plays. Just like football teams review their game plan at half-time, you can easily double check your financial game plan with us – your coaches – to see if you need to make adjustments for the second half.
Retirement: Have you kept your resolutions for paying yourself first by adding to your retirement accounts? If you’ve received a raise and haven’t done so already, consider increasing your 401(k) contribution or having your employer direct deposit the extra into your investment account for IRA contributions. The same is true of any bonuses, tax refunds or other windfalls. Choose saving or paying down debt over consumption, and you won’t be kicking yourself come tax time.
Spending: If you resolved to curb your spending, take time to check and see if you’re still on budget. That bit of drift that may have already started could escalate in February to unacceptable levels. Rein it in now, before it gets out of control, and you’ll find yourself more flush when you need it – like when the holiday buying season arrives later this year.
Taking stock of your performance in your financial game can help ensure you make your goals. Call our office for a game plan review (and strategy adjustment if needed), and look for more coaching tips on credit and cash reserves in next week’s post-game commentary.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America. SAI#309062